This year’s general election could see a minor political party finally break into the major league and challenge the dominance of our two oldest parties.
With the prospect of winning as many as 20 seats in October, the 30-year-old ACT Party would have serious sway in any coalition with the more centrist National Party.
This outcome would finally deliver on the promise of the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) representation we adopted in 1996 and effectively end 100-odd years of our two-party system.
Instead of delivering genuine multi-party governments, MMP actually gave us a “two-party plus” system with New Zealand First most often the “plus” party.
As we approach the 10th election under MMP, polling trends show ACT coming closer to the major parties, forcing National to share power like never before. The same could be said for the left, with Labour heavily reliant on the Greens to get over the line, a trend set to deepen as it gains from Labour’s slide.
The Greens started this shift last election by managing to retain good levels of parliamentary representation following a term in government. This result bucked the trend of the electorate punishing minor parties for governing.
In an election where the current parliamentary minor parties look to hold all the cards some have questioned the relevance of NZ First.
NZ First could play a significant role for voters looking for both change and predictability. If it reaches the five per cent threshold, NZ First will be the best bet for National to manage the growing influence of ACT.
ACT, and to a lesser extent the Greens, are challenging more than 100 years of a two-party system.
NZ First would keep the status quo.